DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/26 06:18
Outside Markets Will Influence Trading Activity
Commodities in general were lower across the board as fears of a recession
dominated the livestock markets. The uncertainty of the Cattle on Feed report
also put pressure on the market. Hogs found no support at all with plummeting
cash and weaker cutouts.
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $184.04 -$0.29*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Lower Lean Equiv: $109.01 -$2.92**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
Cash cattle trading higher last week was not enough to overcome the concern
of traders over the impact of the meltdown of the stock market last week on
concerns of the potential of a recession and the impact that could have on
demand. Boxed beef has been struggling and trending lower and the activity of
the week in the financial sector did not make traders feel warm and fuzzy. Cash
traded $1.00 high in both North and South, which should keep feedlots asking
for more this week. Boxed beef closed mixed Friday with choice up $0.23 and
select down $2.80. Another influence of trading on Friday was the Cattle on
Feed report. True to form, the trade under guessed the placement number.
Placements during the month of August were nearly 2.0% at 100% of a year ago.
This was not as bad as it has been over the past reports, but it is slightly
bearish. On feed was right on the average trade estimate at 100%. Marketings
were at 106%, which is positive. Due to the marketing number being right at
estimates, it is considered neutral. Bottom line is the report is slightly
bearish, but the weakness of futures the second half of last week may already
have that factored in.
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